Mastering life’s courses for running, wine, and business school

Life experiences and interests from abroad

Overconfidence Bias October 24, 2007

Filed under: business school,MBA — emccan2 @ 6:35 am

I am just about to head into my second final – Decision making and Data Analysis.  It’s about 7:15am and the exam is in just over an hour.  There is no possible way that I can cram any more additional information into this overstretched brain of mine, so I am moving on to more important things, like blogging.  My average sleeping hours/night over the past few days have been about 5-6, and I’m starting to wonder how that will contribute to my exam performance. 

Perhaps it would have been wiser of me to run an analytical decision model to understand the incremental increase or decrease in exam performance as a result of an increase in sleeping hours per night.  I’m sure I could come up with a decision tree for that.  Or, maybe I should apply Hindsight Bias for my future exam performance and anticipate that since I’ve managed to do well on exams back in my undergraduate days, I will therefor do well on exams for my masters program. You can probably tell by now that I have spent more than 50% of the past 24 hours studying for this exam on Decision Making and am deliriously applying the styles and techniques to everything concerning my daily decisions.  Hopefully, once I regurgitate my knowledge on the exam, all will be lost from my brain and I can go back to everyday illogical thought processes. 

After today, I will have just two more exams and then a wonderful week-long break.  I’m heading to Italy (Rome, Ischia and Capri) for some well-deserved R&R. 

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One Response to “Overconfidence Bias”

  1. Mom Says:

    Elizabeth,
    I’ll say you deserve a break. What a great way to spend it. Wish I could go with you. Have fun and take lots of pictures.

    Love,
    Mom


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